Byrne Hobart - FTX, Drugs, Twitter, Taiwan, & Monasticism
Perhaps the most interesting episode so far.
Byrne Hobart writes at thediff.co, analyzing inflections in finance and tech.
He explains:
- What happened at FTX
- How drugs have induced past financial bubbles
- How to be long AI while hedging Taiwan invasion
- Whether Musk’s Twitter takeover will succeed.
- Where to find the next Napoleon and LBJ
- & ultimately how society can deal with those who seek domination
Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3GYC6B1
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3VKmncT
Episode Website: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/byrne-hobart-2
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Chapters (15)
Intro
0:50
What the hell happened at FTX?
7:03
How SBF Faked Being a Genius:
12:23
Drugs Explain Financial Bubbles
17:54
On Founder Physiognomy
21:44
Indexing Parental Involvement in Raising Talented Kids
31:17
Where are all the Caro-level Biographers?
39:45
Where are today's Great Founders?
49:07
Micro Writing = Macro Understanding
52:13
Elon's Twitter Takeover
1:01:33
Does Big Tech & West Have Great People?
1:12:17
Philosophical Fanatics and Effective Altruism
1:18:00
What Great Founders Have In Common
1:20:39
Thinkers vs. Analyzers
1:26:22
Taiwan Invasion bets & AI Timelines
Playlist
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Rubik's Cube Encryption Demo
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Bryan Caplan - Nurturing Orphaned Ideas, Education, and UBI
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Matjaž Leonardis - Science, Identity and Probability
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Robin Hanson - The Long View and The Elephant in the Brain
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Caleb Watney - America's Innovation Engine
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Alex Tabarrok - Prizes, Prices, and Public Goods
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Scott Young - Ultralearning, The MIT Challenge
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Scott Aaronson - Quantum Computing, Complexity, and Creativity
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Uncle Bob - The Long Reach of Code, Automating Programming, and Developing Coding Talent
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Michael Huemer - Anarchy, Capitalism, and Progress
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Sarah Fitz-Claridge - Taking Children Seriously | The Lunar Society #15
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Byrne Hobart - Optionality, Stagnation, and Secret Societies
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David Deutsch - AI, America, Fun, & Bayes
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Bryan Caplan - Labor Econ, Poverty, & Mental Illness
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Jimmy Soni - Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and the Paypal Mafia
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Razib Khan - Genomics, Intelligence, and The Church of Science
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Pradyu Prasad - Imperial Japan, the God Emperor, and Militarization in the Modern World
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Manifold Markets Founder - Predictions Markets & Revolutionizing Governance
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Ananyo Bhattacharya - John von Neumann, Jewish Genius, and Nuclear War
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Agustin Lebron - Trading, Crypto, and Adverse Selection
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Sam Bankman-Fried - Crypto, FTX, Altruism, & Leadership
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Alexander Mikaberidze - Napoleon, War, Progress, and Global Order
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Sam Bankman-Fried On FOCUS
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Sam Bankman-Fried on GREAT FOUNDERS
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$30 BILLION Opportunity Ignored by Sam Bankman-Fried Competitors
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Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship
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Joseph Carlsmith - Utopia, AI, & Infinite Ethics
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Will MacAskill - Longtermism, Effective Altruism, History, & Technology
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Steve Hsu - Intelligence, Embryo Selection, & The Future of Humanity
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Austin Vernon - Energy Superabundance, Starship Missiles, & Finding Alpha
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Charles C. Mann - Americas Before Columbus & Scientific Wizardry
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Tyler Cowen - Why Society Will Collapse & Why Sex is Pessimistic
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Bryan Caplan - Feminists, Billionaires, and Demagogues
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Brian Potter - Future of Construction, Ugly Modernism, & Environmental Review
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Kenneth T. Jackson - Robert Moses, Hero of New York?
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Edward Glaeser - Cities, Terrorism, Housing, & Remote Work
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Byrne Hobart - FTX, Drugs, Twitter, Taiwan, & Monasticism
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Nadia Asparouhova — Tech elites, democracy, open source, & philanthropy
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Bethany McLean — Enron, FTX, 2008, Musk, frauds, & visionaries
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Holden Karnofsky — History's most important century
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$30m Grant to OpenAI?
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Does GPT Have Holden Worried?
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Lars Doucet — Progress, poverty, Georgism, & why rent is too damn high
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Deep Learning Changes Everything
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Garett Jones — Immigration, national IQ, & less democracy
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Marc Andreessen — AI, crypto, 1000 Elon Musks, regrets, vulnerabilities, & managerial revolution
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Why You Shouldn't Start A Startup
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The Future Of Venture Capital
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The Crucial Skill For A Startup Founder
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Brett Harrison — FTX US former president speaks out
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Nat Friedman (Github CEO) — Reading ancient scrolls, open source, & AI
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Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI Chief Scientist) — Why next-token prediction could surpass human intelligence
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Impact of Taiwan Invasion on AI
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Reliability is Bottleneck on AI - OpenAI Founder
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Next Token Prediction SOLVES AI Says OpenAI Founder
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Harmful Uses of GPT - OpenAI Founder
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Why OpenAI Founder Thinks AI Is Near
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AI will help us achieve enlightenment - OpenAI Founder
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Eliezer Yudkowsky — Why AI will kill us, aligning LLMs, nature of intelligence, SciFi, & rationality
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Richard Rhodes — The making of the atomic bomb
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DeepCamp AI