The AI Coding Prediction Everyone Got Wrong - Dario Amodei

Key Takeaways

I've made this series of predictions on code and software engineering and I think people have repeatedly kind of misunderstood them. So let me lay out the spectrum right eight or nine months ago or something I said you know the AI model will be writing 90% of the lines of code in like 3 to 6 months which which happened at least at some places right happened happened at anthropic happened with many people downstream using our models but but that's actually a very weak criterion right people thought I was saying like we won't need 90% of the software engineers those things are worlds apart right like I would put the spectrum as 90% of code is written by the model 100% of code is written by the model and that's a big difference in productivity. 90% of the end toend suite tasks right including things like compiling including things like setting up clusters and environments 90% of the suite tasks are written by the models. 100% of today's suite tasks are are are written by the models and and even when when when that happens doesn't mean software engineers are out of a job. There's like new higher level things they can do where they can they can manage. And then there's a further down the spectrum like there's 90% less demand for squeeze which I think will happen but like this is a spectrum and you know I wrote about it in in the adolescence of technology where I went through this kind of spectrum with farming. It's just these are very different benchmarks from each other, but we're proceeding through them super