A MASSIVE Storm Sequence Is Building...

Key Takeaways

It's Thursday, April 9th, 2026. It's the 99th day of the year and we've got a massive week of weather ahead. A multi-day severe weather outbreak is taking shape from Sunday through Tuesday with the threat ramping up across the plains and potentially producing significant tornadoes at its peak. Let's break it all down. The severe weather marathon is officially going to kick off on Saturday with a slight risk across West Texas. So, if you live in Lubbock, Amarillo, or Midland, or San Angelo, you're in the target zone for large hail and damaging winds. Like I mentioned yesterday, for anyone heading out to the Basin Red Dirt Barbecue and Music Festival in Midland, you got to keep your radar app open. So, make sure you have WeatherWise because you could be dodging golf ball-size hail and 60-mph winds right during the middle of the event. So, this threat is going to ramp up late Saturday afternoon between 4:00 and 9:00 p.m. as the storms feed off the peak heating of the day. A wave of energy is going to push into the high plains and it's going to collide with the moisture and daytime heating that's already going to be in place and that's going to cause storms to fire pretty rapidly. There's enough storm energy and wind shear here that any isolated cell that pops up could drop hail big enough to dent your car and produce gusts strong enough to snap tree branches. I'm also flagging a flash flood threat as models continue to show these storms merging into a solid line that could dump over an inch of rain in less than an hour. But, don't let your guard down after Saturday night because this West Texas setup is just the appetizer for a much more potentially significant outbreak that's going to be heading east. Sunday is when this system is really going to start to expand, putting over 14 million people in the crosshairs across the Southern Plains. There is a 15% risk that runs right down the I-35 corridor, meaning Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, and Oklahoma City, and Tulsa are all in play. Storms are going to start firing between 3:00 and 5:00 p.m. and as heating peaks, these dangerous supercells are going to keep going well after the sun goes down. Strong winds aloft are going to pull rich Gulf moisture northward, creating a highly unstable atmosphere where temperatures drop off fast with height. It's a perfect recipe for explosive storm development. We're talking about supercells capable of dropping baseball-sized windshield-shattering hail and straight-line winds strong enough to knock out power across entire neighborhoods. The Weather Prediction Center has also highlighted this exact area pretty much for flash flooding because we're going to have all that Gulf moisture getting wrung out like a sponge over these urban areas. So, if you live anywhere along I-35 from Texas to Oklahoma, your Sunday afternoon plans need to include a rock-solid way to get warnings before these storms arrive. And guess what? This system does not stop by Sunday. On Monday, the threat area doubles in size putting over 28 million people at risk. The bull's-eye is going to stretch all the way down from Dallas once again up through Oklahoma City once again. And now we're getting up here into Kansas City and Omaha. If you are anywhere along that Plains corridor, you are in the danger zone. While people further north and east in places like St. Louis are mostly in the clear for Monday. The most dangerous window opens Monday afternoon around 4:00 p.m. and that escalates fast through the evening as storms rapidly develop. Yesterday, we were talking about this setup as just a maybe, but today the models are really locking in and this outbreak is looking much more certain and potentially much more intense. Winds aloft are going to surge across the central US dragging unseasonably warm and human air all the way up into the upper Midwest. We are also noting that enough storm energy and wind shear could push into the Green Bay, Wisconsin area by Monday evening, which is pretty incredible for April. I mean, it's kind of rare to see this much energy go that far north. So, we're looking at a serious risk for baseball-sized hail that can destroy roofs plus wind gusts over 70 mph that can easily peel shingles and snap power poles. Because this is still a few days out, the exact placement could shift, but the data is consistently showing an emerging tornado threat as supercells organize by Monday evening. The I-35 corridor from Oklahoma City to Kansas City is where the ingredients are best lining up right now for discrete long-track supercells before they eventually merge into a messy line. If these ingredients lock into place exactly like they're modeled right now, all the stuff that we're looking at here, Monday's going to produce some of the most destructive storms we've seen so far this year. And as bad as Monday looks, Tuesday is shaping up to be the peak of this entire outbreak with 48 million people under the gun. The 15% risk area is absolutely massive, stretching from Dallas all the way up to Chicago and Milwaukee and even up past that. A lot of you guys have been asking me about Tuesday evening and the Chicago area specifically. The only thing I've got to say is if if you've got outdoor plans up here, you've got to cancel them right now. The severe weather threat is going to fire up Tuesday afternoon. It's going to persist well into the night, making this a highly dangerous after-dark event for the Midwest. The main driver here is a powerful jet streak that's punching out of the southern Rockies and into all of that unstable, moisture-loaded air, giving storms the upper-level wind shear they need to start spinning. We are highly confident that this is happening, okay? The Storm Prediction Center even noted today that an upgrade to a higher risk category is on the table once they nail down the exact timing. We're not just talking about heavy rain. We're not just talking about some lightning and some thunder. We're talking about supercells capable of widespread wind damage that could leave entire neighborhoods without power for days. The tornado threat is also looking pretty intense on Tuesday. The environment strongly supports the development of strong, long-track tornadoes. What really stands out is how far north and volatile this setup reaches. Seeing this kind of tornado environment near Chicago and Milwaukee in April is rare and alarming. You need multiple ways of getting warnings on Tuesday, especially ones that are going to wake you up because these storms are going to be tearing through communities long after you go to sleep more than likely. So, the bottom line is if you live anywhere out here in the shaded area, make sure you've got a plan and you're not scared, but you're rather prepared. Now, by Wednesday, a cold front is finally going to start pushing this whole mess eastward, but But not going to go out quietly. We've got over 37 million people at risk here as the severe weather shifts into the Mississippi Valley. Now it's going to be targeting cities like Indianapolis down through Memphis and Austin. And storms are likely going to be ongoing Wednesday morning and they're going to refire as we go into the afternoon as the front keeps marching east. That cold front is going to act like a plow, scooping up all that warm unstable air, forcing it up, and that's going to cause a massive organized squall line. And because this is a week out, the models disagree on exactly where this front's going to be and where the strongest storms are going to be. So even if the tornado threat drops off, a squall line that's going to be causing widespread 60 to 70 mph winds is still something that you need to be paying attention to because this is enough to blow high profile trucks off the highway. It's enough to drop trees onto homes. And I think that's the kind of stuff that we're going to be talking about with this squall line as it pushes through. And we're going to be talking to millions of people that are going to have their Wednesday morning commute interrupted by blaring severe thunderstorm warnings on their phone. So make sure your alerts are turned on and make sure this doesn't catch you off guard. Now after breaking all these severe weather days, we need to take a breath. And we need to look at the gorgeous weather that could be happening this weekend. We don't have any areas of perfect or pristine weather on the map, but the the best weather in the country on Saturday is probably going to be over here in the deep south and in the lower Mississippi Valley. We've got a massive high pressure system that's parking itself over the region like a giant shield, completely blocking out any of these storm systems out west that are trying to come in. And that's going to bring about some wall-to-wall sunshine. We're going to have mostly clear skies, low humidity, and crisp spring temperatures in the 70s. And headed into next week, that dry air is going to shift west bringing perfectly sunny conditions into Southern California and Arizona. So if you live anywhere in the south, this is your official excuse to turn off the screen, fire up the grill, and spend your Saturday outside. And that's pretty much all the weather talk I have for you today, guys. We're really going to start nailing down some of these specific threats tomorrow because some of our bigger events are going to have some higher resolution data available for them and we're going to start going live every day probably starting Saturday. I don't know when it's going to end but make sure you're subscribed, turn notifications on. It's going to be a busy week. So once again, don't be scared, be prepared and I'll see you in the next one. Goodbye.