Temporal Dropout Risk in Learning Analytics: A Harmonized Survival Benchmark Across Dynamic and Early-Window Representations

arXiv:2604.08870v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Student dropout is a persistent concern in Learning Analytics, yet comparative studies frequently evaluate predictive models under heterogeneous protocols, prioritizing discrimination over temporal interpretability and calibration. This study introduces a survival-oriented benchmark for temporal dropout risk modelling using the Open University Learning Analytics Dataset (OULAD). Two harmonized arms are compared: a dynamic weekly arm, with models