Scheming in the wild: detecting real-world AI scheming incidents with open-source intelligence

arXiv:2604.09104v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Scheming, the covert pursuit of misaligned goals by AI systems, represents a potentially catastrophic risk, yet scheming research suffers from significant limitations. In particular, scheming evaluations demonstrate behaviours that may not occur in real-world settings, limiting scientific understanding, hindering policy development, and not enabling real-time detection of loss of control incidents. Real-world evidence is needed, but current monit