Black-Scholes on Polymarket: Finding Mispriced Binary Events with Python

📰 Dev.to · Ayrat Murtazin

Learn to detect mispriced binary events on Polymarket using the Black-Scholes model and Python, and capitalize on 5-7% mispricings

intermediate Published 20 Apr 2026
Action Steps
  1. Apply the Black-Scholes model to calculate the theoretical price of a binary option using Python
  2. Use the calculated price to compare with the market price on Polymarket and identify potential mispricings
  3. Analyze the volatility and risk factors that contribute to mispricings
  4. Backtest the strategy using historical data to evaluate its performance
  5. Refine the model by incorporating additional factors, such as market sentiment and liquidity
Who Needs to Know This

Quantitative analysts and traders can benefit from this technique to identify undervalued or overvalued binary events on Polymarket, while data scientists can apply the Black-Scholes model to other prediction markets

Key Insight

💡 The Black-Scholes model can be applied to binary options on Polymarket to identify mispricings, allowing for potential trading opportunities

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Detect mispriced binary events on Polymarket with Black-Scholes & Python!
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