Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting and Scenario Analysis: State of the Field, Methodological Gaps, and Strategic Implications

arXiv:2604.22766v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this report, we review the current state of methodologies to forecast the arrival of artificial general intelligence, assess their reliability, and analyze the implications for strategy and policy. We synthesize diverse forecasting approaches, document significant limitations in existing methods, and propose a research agenda for developing more-robust forecasting infrastructure. The report does not endorse a specific forecast or scenario but