A Mathematical Framework for Temporal Modeling and Counterfactual Policy Simulation of Student Dropout

arXiv:2604.08874v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This study proposes a temporal modeling framework with a counterfactual policy-simulation layer for student dropout in higher education, using LMS engagement data and administrative withdrawal records. Dropout is operationalized as a time-to-event outcome at the enrollment level; weekly risk is modeled in discrete time via penalized, class-balanced logistic regression over person--period rows. Under a late-event temporal holdout, the model attain